It’s the first chance for NASCAR drivers to truly guarantee a spot to contend for the championship in the series finale. After a regular season spent trying to make the Playoffs and a postseason spent trying to advance through them, winning Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (airing at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) punches any Playoff driver’s spot in the Championship 4.
But it’s not a sure bet that a Playoff driver will win at all. In fact, in six postseason races so far, a non-Playoff driver has won three. That’s especially important because of the win-and-you’re-in system in the Playoffs, where a win automatically grants a berth in the next round: that stat means a spoiler has kept Playoff drivers from advancing in half the postseason races so far, something some eliminated drivers who had a shot at winning some of those races must regret.
Odds via BetMGM
+275 – Kyle Larson
+700 – William Byron
+800 – Christopher Bell
+800 – Tyler Reddick
+850 – Denny Hamlin
+1000 – Ryan Blaney
+1300 – Joey Logano
+1400 – Martin Truex
+1600 – Chase Elliott
+1800 – Ross Chastain
And that field of eliminated drivers has gotten stronger with the elimination of Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric, and Chase Briscoe after the ROVAL whittled the postseason field from 12 to 8. Bowman particularly left the race with enough points for a spot in the next round before getting disqualified for a weight violation in postrace inspection, so the No. 48 team has something to prove.
“I think we can be really strong this weekend,” Bowman said, explaining that his team has been strong on the mile-and-a-half tracks. “This year we were really good at Kansas. Vegas is normally a good place for us. We had some issues there in the spring with the car but I think that was an oddly bad race for us. Other than that, we typically race pretty good there. Definitely excited about this weekend.”
The odds-on favorite is Bowman’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson, and it’s easy to see why: since joining Hendrick in 2021, he has won three times at the mile-and-a-half track and finished second twice.
Playoff points entering Vegas
1. (+33) Kyle Larson
2. (+13) Christopher Bell
3. (+10) Tyler Reddick
4. (+4) William Byron
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5. (-4) Ryan Blaney
6. (-8) Denny Hamlin
7. (-9) Chase Elliott
8. (-11) Joey Logano
Larson also enters with the largest points lead, huge in comparison to his competitors. The lead is big enough to provide a cushion for the No. 5 team, although there is no scenario where he can make his points lead large enough leaving Vegas to clinch a spot ahead of the next two races of this round, so the motivation to win is still there.
Larson had a crash entering pit road at Homestead-Miami that took him out of that race, the second race of the final round last year. It was his win at Vegas that meant the 34th-place finish did not impact his chances of entering the next round. So there is always motivation to win, even for a driver with a big advantage, because there are no sure things in the NASCAR Playoffs.
“Las Vegas has been one of our better tracks,” Larson acknowledged. “On paper, all three tracks in the Round of 8 stack up pretty well for our HendrickCars.com team, but we still have to go out and execute. I would like to run well and win, but we also have a good opportunity to score stage points and hopefully create a bigger gap before Martinsville.”
No other driver has as big a points advantage as Larson, but then no driver has a big deficit either. At least one driver is guaranteed a spot in the Championship 4 on points, even if all three winners are part of the Playoffs, and there could be more if non-Playoff drivers continue to play spoiler. So the battle is on for every point, and of course that all-important win.
“I think you can be really, really solid and probably get through, but I would like to go win and win our way in,” Playoff contender Chase Elliott assessed the situation. “I think we’re very capable of that. I look at Vegas next week as a great opportunity and same for Homestead and Martinsville. I always say, you get to this round and you know it really is game on. I think anybody has a shot so I’m ready to get going.”
Joey Logano is in a unique position among the drivers on that table, as he thought he was out of the Playoffs leaving the ROVAL. It was only when he heard that Alex Bowman had been DQ’d that Logano realized he was actually still in. He explained that the mixed emotions over the weekend don’t change his mindset at all heading into the race.
“The same way we would have if we’d made it any other way,” he said of the way he plans to approach Vegas. “You go out there and you attack. The positives, I feel like we’ve been steadily getting better and improving throughout the season to where we are now. I feel confident in the speed we have in our car.”
Logano is looking to maintain a unique statistic: he has advanced to the final round of the postseason in every even year since joining Team Penske: 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022, winning two championships in that period.
A Vegas win could also bode well for an eventual championship win. In 2021, Kyle Larson won at Vegas then won the Championship race, and Joey Logano did the same the very next year in 2022. (Ryan Blaney finished sixth at Vegas en route to last year’s championship, but then he didn’t actually win the final race of the year in doing so.)
One driver who certainly wants to spoil the Playoff picture and might have a good chance to do it is Kyle Busch. He desperately wants to extend his streak of at least one win per season to 20 years, and has spoken about his motivation to do so.
Las Vegas might be the track to do it. Over his career, Busch has twelve top-five finishes and one win, so he knows the place. And his Richard Childress Racing team has shown plenty of speed since the Olympic break, with Austin Dillon winning (albeit with an asterisk) at Richmond and Busch nearly winning at Darlington.
“We did run well there in the spring so it would be really nice to back up that run this weekend.,” Busch said at Vegas. “Since the summer break we have gotten faster as a group thanks to all the effort and hard work by everyone at RCR and ECR. Now we just need to put a whole race together in order to score a win.”
Practice is on Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET, followed by qualifying at 5:20 p.m. ET. That will air on USA Network, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, and the NBC Sports App.
Points are tight for the Xfinity Series ahead of the Round of 8
The Round of 8 for the Xfinity Series opens with Saturday’s Ambetter Health 302 (airing at 7 p.m. ET on the CW, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). It’s the first chance to clinch a spot in the Championship 4 at Phoenix.
It means the points table has been reset and brought ever-closer – there are just 31 points separating the drivers entering Vegas first and eighth in points. With at least one spot at Phoenix guaranteed on points, since there are only three races for a winner to clinch a spot in the finale, that points battle will be the focus over the next three races.
Playoff points entering Vegas
1. (+18) Justin Allgaier
2. (+11) Cole Custer
3. (+9) Austin Hill
4. (+8) Chandler Smith
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5. (-8) Sam Mayer
6. (-12) Jesse Love
7. (-18) AJ Allmendinger
8. (-19) Sammy Smith
It’s Justin Allgaier who enters with the largest advantage, carrying Playoff points from his two race wins and massive 15 stage wins. Allgaier has more than double the Stage wins of any other driver and accounting for 29% of the total stage wins this year.
Cole Custer, Austin Hill, and Chandler Smith all also enter with advantages to the cutline. Last week’s winner Sam Mayer, rookie Jesse Love, and AJ Allmendinger, and Sammy Smith all enter with a deficit, but, again, not a large one.
Cole Custer said that his Stewart-Haas Racing team has made Vegas a focus in this round of the Playoffs, which also includes Homestead-Miami and Martinsville.
“I think overall at the intermediate tracks, we know as a team that we have a really good package, but this is such an important round for the championship run,” Custer explained. “You have two intermediate tracks in the Round of 8 with Vegas and Homestead. So it’s all about going over the details we had from last year and trying to be just a little, tiny bit better.
“If you kick the round off strong at Las Vegas, you can collect more points to help you get to that final race. If you can win, that puts all the worries to rest. It automatically propels you into the final race and that’s what we’re looking to do. Sure, you don’t want to overthink it and throw away a good points day. You’re always going to try and make things better and better every time you go to a track you’ve done well at in the past.
“I think we have a really good chance this weekend and next to win. We just have to cross all of the T’s and dot all of the I’s and have a fast car,” Custer concluded.
It is of course possible for a non-Playoff driver to play spoiler and win, taking away the chance for a Playoff driver to win, and it just takes looking back to last year for evidence of that.
Riley Herbst earned his first Xfinity Series win at his home track of Las Vegas Motor Speedway despite not being in the Playoffs, and in doing so played spoiler himself. Herbst made the Playoffs this year on the back of a win at Indianapolis but was eliminated when the field was cut down to eight drivers, so he’s hoping to spoil again.
Obviously, Charlotte was hard for us,” Herbst admitted. “We didn’t advance to the Round of 8 and that stung. When you get back to the shop on Monday, though, you have to put it behind you and realize that there are still four races left to try to win.
“We’re the defending winners of this Vegas race. Not only am I going home, but I’m also going to a track that means the world to me. I started my racing career just next to the big track at the Las Vegas Bullring. My win last October meant everything. I had waited so long for it and, honestly, it just made it that much more meaningful to get it at my home track. My whole family was there to celebrate and it was in front of the people who had probably seen me racing for years.
“There’s definitely confidence going into this race, not only from me, but from the entire No. 98 Monster Energy team. We’ve had speed pretty much all season, and I know we can go out and contend for the win again if we can just look forward. We still have to do everything right, but I’m confident in this team.”
A few additional drivers will be hoping for a good result in a part-time start. That includes Truck Series drivers Daniel Dye, Taylor Gray, and Corey Heim and Joe Gibbs Racing’s part-time Xfinity driver Aric Almirola.
Practice is on Friday at 6:35 p.m. ET, followed by qualifying at 7:05 p.m. ET. That will air on USA Network and the NBC Sports App.
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