The Playoff picture was totally shaken up after Richmond. First, Austin Dillon’s win appeared to take away one of the few remaining spots available on points. Then, when NASCAR decided the win no longer conferred Playoff eligibility, Dillon ended up back on the outside looking in and the points race heated up again.
The battle for the points positions couldn’t be any closer, with a tie between the two drivers on the cutline. Martin Truex enters Michigan 78 points to the good, Ty Gibbs carries an 18-point advantage, and Bubba Wallace is three points above. Then two drivers currently have the same number of points for the fourth and final spot, with Chris Buescher currently holding the tiebreaker over Ross Chastain by virtue of two runner-up finishes.
Odds via BetMGM
+550 – Denny Hamlin
+600 – Kyle Larson
+800 – Ryan Blaney
+800 – Tyler Reddick
+800 – Brad Keselowski
+850 – Christopher Bell
+900 – Martin Truex
+1200 – Chase Elliott
+1300 – William Byron
+1400 – Chris Buescher
That means the battle will be everywhere on track in Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway, airing at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, as those drivers on the bubble fight for every position on track and every possible stage point with just three races to go in the regular season.
But they’ll have to keep an eye on the leader, since a new winner (barring another penalty like Dillon received) will automatically clinch a berth in the Playoffs and take away one of the potential spots on points – although if any of those bubble drivers can win, they too will clinch a spot.
It’s Buescher of those drivers who’s the defending race winner, and he’ll look to do it again. Last season, he won at Richmond, Michigan, and Daytona, in a sweep of the three oval races in a row. This year, he’s been faster, with those two runner-ups and five total top-five finishes, but he’s been less consistent with fewer overall top-tens at this point in the year, which has hurt him in the points. He’ll be hoping to be just .001 seconds up, since that’s the margin of his loss in Kansas – the closest finish in NASCAR history.
Buescher was able to win for the Blue Oval in its backyard – Michigan being the closest track to Detroit, the Motor City, and the headquarters of Ford and Chevrolet. Ford has won the Heritage Trophy eleven times at the track since the special trophy was started in 2013, including the last nine races, and every Ford driver wants to continue the streak. In fact, Ford’s 44 wins at Michigan are the most of any manufacturer at any track.
“It’s pretty important, more important for us,” explained Joey Logano. “I’d like to get it more than anybody. Probably every Ford driver would say the same thing, but it’s definitely a special place to win for the OEMs. You think about it. All of the executives are there. The last thing you want is them to drive back to Dearborn and say, ‘Uhhhhh.’ You want them to be celebrating and enjoy it, so everyone brings as much as they can to try to win that one.”
Plenty of other drivers intend to steal that trophy, though. Denny Hamlin is one of them. After earning three points wins earlier in the season, Hamlin had a difficult summer, with just two top-ten finishes in the last eight races. One of those was a second last week at Richmond and a near win – he turned under Austin Dillon when Dillon got into Logano and would’ve won had Dillon not right-hooked him into the wall.
Hamlin and crew have picked the right time for a resurgence if they can manage it, with the Playoffs just about to start. Michigan would be an excellent place to get another win and all the momentum that comes with it.
It won’t be easy for any driver to get the win at Michigan, though. The 2-mile track is fast, seeing some of the highest speeds in NASCAR, and the Next Gen car opens up multiple lines on track to pass.
“It definitely feels like you’re hauling the mail at Michigan. Michigan is one of those places where you know you’re going fast and if you hit something, it’s not going to feel good,” Chase Briscoe explained. “It definitely gets your attention.”
Ross Chastain explained that the car can sometimes be difficult to control at the track since it’s right on the edge.
“When you lose grip at Michigan there’s no catching it,” he said. “There’s no sliding – it’s either all grip and going fast or sliding somewhere you don’t want to be.”
The drivers will have a practice session to get to grips with the car, starting at 12:35 p.m. ET on Saturday and broadcast live on USA Network, MRN, and the NBC Sports app. Qualifying will follow immediately after at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Xfinity drivers and teams need to get out of the holiday mindset for Michigan
The NASCAR Xfinity Series has enjoyed a three-week break, coinciding with NBC’s coverage of the Paris Olympics.
“I enjoyed getting some time off before we head into these final races of the season,” explained series points leader Cole Custer.
“It gave us a chance to take a break before we have to grind for 13 weeks without a break. My wife Kari and I were expecting our first child over the break, and Callahan Brian Custer came into the world on August 1. I spent the rest of the break just enjoying my time with them and getting adjusted to the new life with a baby.”
Now, though, Custer and others need to be ready for a high-speed and high-intensity return to racing at Michigan International Speedway in Saturday’s Cabo Wabo 250, airing at 3:30 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Custer and his Stewart-Haas teammate Riley Herbst have certainly deserved some time off, though, having won at Pocono and Indianapolis, the last two races before the break, to punch their tickets into the Playoffs. Coming into Michigan, just six races remain for other drivers to join them.
“Coming into the break on that hot streak was everything. We’ve been strong all season, but it’s nice to have this strong run as we head into the later part of the season. This is where it really counts,” Custer explained.
“Getting that win at Indianapolis meant everything,” Herbst added. “To get one win in the Xfinity Series is hard, but to get a second after running so consistently is a whole other achievement. It proves that I have grown and become a better driver over the years. It may have taken me a little longer than others, but I’m proud of my journey.”
Now, as both teams focus on the Playoffs and the championship battle, Michigan is an opportunity for additional valuable Playoff points from stage wins and victories. Plus, Custer is in a battle for the regular season championship and will be hoping to extend his large 56-point lead over Justin Allgaier.
“We just need to have a solid weekend – a fast car, no mistakes, and some good luck,” Riley Herbst explained of the team’s approach with a win in the bank. “This is a fast track, so you have to have your car just right if you want to compete for wins. We’re riding a wave of momentum after Indianapolis. The plan is to keep that going this weekend.”
Custer explained that the 2-mile facility is a unique track for the series that presents a fresh challenge to get those wins.
“Michigan provides a type of different racing for us just because you have to worry so much about dirty air at this track,” he said. “In addition, you have to worry about how you position your car throughout the race, when to make moves and when not to. You can get freight-trained very quickly if you make a move at the wrong time.
“It’s a strategic racetrack,” Custer added. “Ultimately, it’s just a different kind of racing than a typical intermediate track. At the end of the day, though, you have to have a good car that you can be aggressive with at any given moment. Just like at any other racetrack, a fast car makes all the difference.”
With six races to go, getting a win becomes increasingly urgent for drivers who haven’t yet picked one up. Coming into Michigan, there are just four spots still available on points, with eight drivers having clinched a win, and the ‘win-and-you’re-in’ system means that number could easily shrink to zero.
Of the drivers in on points but who have yet to clinch a spot, AJ Allmendinger enjoys a 102-point advantage, Sheldon Creed enters 69 points above, Parker Kligerman has 46 points in hand, and Ryan Sieg is just three points above. On the other side of the cutline, Sammy Smith’s three-point deficit keeps him well within range.
All drivers in the field will also have to face down Cup talent John Hunter Nemechek in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Last year as an Xfinity Series regular, he won this race at Michigan and is entered as the defending winner.
The field will have a chance to get to grips with the track in practice from 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday, airing on the NBC Sports app, followed by qualifying at 4:10 p.m. ET.
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