Darlington Raceway will play host to NASCAR’s regular season finale this year and all the pressure that comes with it. It’s something of a break from tradition: in recent years, the race before the Playoffs has been at Daytona International Speedway with its always-unpredictable finishes. However, Darlington is a fitting replacement.
The Track Too Tough to Tame is a challenge, with a high line right up against the wall that begs for contact and causes damage, making it a grueling race for car and driver alike. Last year, more than half of the Playoff drivers some sort of catastrophic problem that significantly impacted their running position when this race was the opening round of the postseason, and some never recovered from that opening deficit.
Odds via BetMGM
+475 – Kyle Larson
+500 – Denny Hamlin
+600 – Tyler Reddick
+1000 – William Byron
+1000 – Brad Keselowski
+1000 – Martin Truex
+1100 – Christopher Bell
+1400 – Chris Buescher
+1600 – Ty Gibbs
+1800 – Joey Logano
Expect more of the same in Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, airing at 6 p.m. ET on USA, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. The pressure will be just as high on both sides of the cutline even if the Playoffs haven’t officially started yet.
Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman, and Harrison Burton all have at least one win to guarantee them a spot in the postseason.
However, the regular season champion gets an extra fifteen Playoff points, while second just gets ten and third gets eight. Those points are valuable, as Martin Truex proved last year. He made a deep run into the Round of 8 despite an average finishing position of 20th in the Playoffs and just one top-ten.
The race for that championship is close. Tyler Reddick enters with the points lead, while Kyle Larson trails by 17 points and Chase Elliott trails by 18 points.
While the points are valuable and there is some pressure, neither Reddick nor Elliott planned on changing their approach for the final races when asked at Daytona. Elliott knows that the Playoff points can be valuable if a Playoff run isn’t going to plan, but stressed that his goal is to find that performance at Darlington to enter the Playoffs on a high regardless.
It’s Kyle Larson who’s actually the favorite coming into the race and is the defending Southern 500 winner. He, on the other hand, talked about his anticipation to battle for the regular season championship and lock down those extra points.
At the other end of the points table, the battle is much fiercer. Harrison Burton’s win at Daytona earned him an automatic Playoff berth – there is no longer a rule that a driver needs to be in the top thirty in points to qualify – and that took away one spot for a driver on points. That means only three drivers can make the Playoffs on points, and if there’s another new winner at Darlington, only two will.
Playoff bubble entering Darlington
14. (+58) Martin Truex
15. (+39) Ty Gibbs
16. (+21) Chris Buescher
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17. (-21) Bubba Wallace
18. (-27) Ross Chastain
19. (-106) Kyle Busch
Predictably, all of the bubble drivers ran into some sort of trouble at Daytona, with the net result being a wider gap. Both Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain can earn a points position, but with 21- and 29-point deficits respectively, it’s an uphill battle.
“We need to gather a lot of points Sunday night and win. The math is the math,” Chastain said. “If we have a fast car that will obviously increase our chances.
“I love Darlington so I can’t think of a better place to be going this weekend. We’ll all know Sunday night if I’m in the playoffs or not. No matter what though, we’re going to keep working hard and going for wins the rest of the season.”
On the other side, Martin Truex and Ty Gibbs sit in more comfortable position and can lock in with a solid run. Martin Truex needs just 19 points to clinch his spot, which means he could clinch his spot by the end of the two stages if he finishes first and second. Ty Gibbs needs to score 38 points, meaning a particularly good finish could guarantee him a spot no matter what his competitors do without even needing stage points.
One driver to keep an eye on is Erik Jones. He’s won the Southern 500 at Darlington twice, once in his former No. 20 ride and once in his current No. 43 seat.
Four races to go in Xfinity Series Playoffs at Darlington
The Xfinity Series is in the home stretch of the regular season championship and drivers are running out of time to upset the Playoff picture heading into Saturday’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 at Darlington Raceway, airing at 3:30 p.m. on USA, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
There are currently eight winners who have secured a spot in the postseason, meaning any new winner will automatically lock in (while there is a win-and-you’re-in system, if there are more winners than spots then a winner could miss out). So long as there aren’t any new winners, that means there’s four points positions for the taking.
AJ Allmendinger and Sheldon Creed sit comfortably, with 113- and 93-point buffers to the cutline respectively. Parker Kligerman has a 44-point cushion as well.
The battle currently involves Ryan Sieg and Sammy Smith with just 15 points between them. Sieg enters Darlington with the advantage, but that’s small enough that any issues could cost Sieg the position and flip the standings upside down.
And Darlington is a place to expect issues of some sort, as Cole Custer explained.
“Darlington is called ‘Too Tough to Tame’ for a reason. It’s such a difficult track for a driver. If your car isn’t set up just right, it can make for a bad race, which we definitely don’t need right now,” Custer said.
He’s battling for the regular season championship and the Playoffs points bonus on the other end of the points table, locked in with a win at Pocono. Custer enters Darlington 33 points behind points leader Justin Allgaier.
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