The ‘win-and-you’re-in’ system that defines NASCAR’s Playoffs mean a points position is never certain until the postseason begins. A new winner takes away a sport that would otherwise go to a driver on points.
That’s exactly what’s happened following the penultimate race of the season at Daytona. Harrison Burton, with his first-ever Cup Series win, has been granted an automatic Playoff berth (there is no longer a rule that a driver must be in the top-thirty in points to qualify). And that means the points battle on the bubble is now a fight for three, not four spots.
Playoff bubble battle
14. (+58) Martin Truex
15. (+39) Ty Gibbs
16. (+21) Chris Buescher
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17. (-21) Bubba Wallace
18. (-27) Ross Chastain
Daytona is a difficult place for a bubble battle no matter how many spots are available given its unpredictability. The tight packs of cars mean that a small slip or bad push can lead to a wreck that collects dozens of cars totally separate from the initial incident.
And trouble was all around the Playoff drivers at Daytona. On lap 61 of 160, Ross Chastain and Martin Truex got caught up in a big wreck. Truex then blew a tire a few laps later that necessitated further repairs. Bubba Wallace and Chris Buescher were both collected in a wreck as drivers fighting for the lead came together on lap 153 suffering serious, but not terminal, damage. And Chastain, Wallace, Buescher, and Gibbs were all right in the vicinity of the final wreck, though all continued on.
The upshot? Of the bubble drivers, Ty Gibbs finished fifth, Bubba Wallace finished sixth, Chris Buescher finished tenth, Ross Chastain finished twelfth, and Martin Truex came home 24th, three laps down.
That means, while they may leave Daytona in the same order in the points positions they entered, the points have changed.
Martin Truex, who came into Daytona with a 77-point advantage to the cutline and a chance to clinch a spot by getting enough points to guarantee a postseason spot ahead of Darlington, dropped to a 58-point advantage leaving.
It’s still a large gap, but the twenty-point drop is clear indication of how much one bad race can shape up the Playoffs – and Truex still managed to recover his finish somewhat rather than ending up last. A bad run at Darlington could possibly leave Truex vulnerable, though he is of course in the most comfortable position.
Ty Gibbs, on the other hand, stayed exactly the same. He entered 39 points to the good of the cutline and leaves 39 points to the good with a solid top-five on the statline to boot.
“It was really important,” Gibbs said of the good result. “I’m glad that we got to finish this race. It just got kind of messy there at the end, which is similar to what happens at all of these races. I just was happy to have a good, clean day – good points day. We will look to have a good day next week.”
Chris Buescher maximized his performance all day to come out of Daytona in better position than he entered. While he won at Daytona last year (his third win of the season at that point) last season to ensure he was locked in, a 21-point buffer heading into Darlington is better than the 16 points in hand he entered with.
That was a result of a diligent strategy all day to maximize points, starting with the stages. He finished third in Stage 1 and ninth in Stage 2 to pick up ten extra points. Then, after getting involved in one of the late wrecks, he drove back up to a top-ten finish.
Despite that points haul, Buescher, who had winning speed with several of his Ford teammates who ran up front all day, was disappointed not to lock down that win and take off the pressure of points racing ahead of Darlington.
“Yeah, our Mustang was so good. We were able to push unbelievably well, make a ton of speed. It was a lot of fun for a long while there, caught up in another accident. Just trying to get it to the end. Ultimately it was not the day we needed,” he said.
“Yeah, I mean, we go into Darlington points being what they are, yeah, a little bit of a cushion there,” Buescher said, looking forward. “We know we were really good there last time. Try and seal the deal this go-around and make it easy going into the Playoffs.”
Bubba Wallace has seen a bad position get worse. Entering Daytona with a one-point deficit to make up as the fifth driver, he leaves the fourth driver – but, with the new winner, fourth is no longer in. That means Wallace comes into Darlington with a 27-point deficit to the cutline.
Wallace has the ninth-best average finish at Darlington and the second-best of all the bubble drivers, only after Ty Gibbs, so he has a shot. He’s never managed to win at the famously difficult track, though, and wants to change that statistic.
“You got one car fighting for a regular-season championship, and another car right on the bubble. Unacceptable,” Wallace described the situation at his 23XI Racing team, critical of his performance throughout the year.
“I’ll take all that weight on my shoulders. Should have won multiple times this year and I haven’t. We don’t even deserve to be here and we are. Got to go win next week. That is it.”
Ross Chastain, conversely, has flipped sides of the cutline after Daytona. He entered one point to the good – a slim advantage, but an advantage nonetheless. He leaves Daytona 27 points down.
Chastain’s focus has now shifted fully to Darlington where he’s adopted a must-win strategy to overcome the now-large points deficit. A win is all-but necessary for him at this point, two positions below the cutline and with plenty of points to make up; he would need his competitors to suffer misfortune to make up the deficit otherwise.
“I look at it like we have another chance to go win the Southern 500. That’s what I’m focused on this week,” Chastain said. “The points, they give them out at the stages and end of the race. If you run good, they give you a lot of them. I just get excited for a chance to go win the Southern 500.”
As for how his mindset shifts after being collected in the early crash, Chastain said his focus shifted to securing every point possible.
“I was just hoping it would stay running, keep the water in it and be able to keep up with the pack. Looking at the car, it was amazing it did,” he said. “The whole splitter is off of it; dragging the ground. Yeah, it’s pretty incredible that we were even able to finish. I thought the radiator was going to be gone.
“We’re fortunate to finish, but yeah, as I’m riding around – mainly in Stage Two when I dropped back from the pack and was going to be the free pass, I thought through all of it then. And then the whole final stage, it was all about trying to execute and maximize what we could.”
With just one race to go, the Playoff bubble race has turned into one of attrition and maximizing recovery when the inevitable issue strikes. Being able to do so at Darlington, where issues come fast and often, will be key to making the postseason and securing all the bonuses – prestige, sponsorship, earnings – that comes with it.
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