No Playoff driver is safe heading to Talladega

TALLADEGA, ALABAMA - APRIL 21: Anthony Alfredo, driver of the #62 Dude Wipes Chevrolet, Corey LaJoie, driver of the #7 Gainbridge Chevrolet, Todd Gilliland, driver of the #38 gener8tor Ford, Austin Dillon, driver of the #3 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet, Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, Ryan Preece, driver of the #41 United Rentals Ford, Kyle Busch, driver of the #8 Cheddar's Chevrolet, and Daniel Hemric, driver of the #31 Cirkul Chevrolet, race during the NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 21, 2024 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
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The second round of the Playoffs might be its most unpredictable. After the first round at mile-and-a-half Kansas, the series heads to Talladega for the YellaWood 500, airing at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio on Sunday, and then the round ends at the Charlotte Roval infield road course.

The first round gives it close competition, in that it also featured a superspeedway-style race and a road course, but it at least concluded at a more typical short track. This round ends unpredictably. And adding to the unpredictability – since a Playoff driver did not win the first race of the round, every driver in the field has to perform in the next few races.

Odds via BetMGM
+1000 – Ryan Blaney
+1000 – Joey Logano
+1100 – Brad Keselowski
+1300 – Kyle Busch
+1400 – William Byron
+1400 – Denny Hamlin
+1600 – Chase Elliott
+1800 – Austin Cindric
+2000 – Kyle Larson
+2000 – Tyler Reddick

Some certainly do come in with a bigger cushion than others. William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Christopher Bell all have comfortably large margins to the cutline heading into Talladega, but none have clinched a spot on points. Two bad races and any of those drivers could be out of the Playoffs. Kyle Larson and Denny both come in with advantages, too, but ones not quite so large.

Closer to the cutline sits Alex Bowman and closer still are Chase Elliott and Joey Logano. Those two are tied with just a four-point gap to Tyler Reddick – something of a surprising position for the No. 45.

Indeed, the regular season champion is provisionally below the cutline and, if the Round of 8 started now, would fail to advance, even with the big points bonus from winning that championship. It would mirror what happened last year, when regular season champion Martin Truex failed to make the Round of 8, but it would be no less a surprise.

Reddick therefore is hoping for a strong run at Talladega, and it might be just the track for him. He’s won twice this year, and one of those wins came the last time the series visited Talladega in the spring.

Also entering below the cutline, but by larger margins, are Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Cindric. In such a wildcard round, though, all those drivers could still have a shot, particularly if drivers above the cutline get caught up in wrecks or suffer mechanical issues.

Playoff standings entering Talladga
1. (+34) William Byron
2. (+28) Ryan Blaney
3. (+28) Christopher Bell
4. (+18) Kyle Larson
5. (+11) Denny Hamlin
6. (+8) Alex Bowman
7. (+4) Chase Elliott
8. (+4) Joey Logano
——————————–
9. (-4) Tyler Reddick
10. (-14) Daniel Suarez
11. (-25) Chase Briscoe
12. (-29) Austin Cindric

Of all drivers, Briscoe has been very good at Talladega, and especially consistent, something that’s challenging to do on any superspeedway. He’s only finished outside the top-fifteen at the track once in four years in the Cup Series. Briscoe will be hoping to do that again, but is the first to admit that he doesn’t exactly know how because Talladega is always such a surprise.

“I have no idea. There’s nothing I really do there that I feel is special. It’s just one of those things where luck’s on your side or the man upstairs is looking out for you,” he explained. “We’ve been just fortunate to miss the wrecks there and have good days. Hopefully, we can just have one of those solid days.

“Obviously, we’re going there to win the race, but Talladega is one of those places where if you can just come out of it with a top-15, you’re almost happy just because you didn’t bleed a ton of points.”

What wouldn’t be a surprise is if Logano, or his teammate Ryan Blaney, ultimately picked up the win. The Penske teammates have been fast on superspeedways for years, in the Next Gen car and in previous generations, and prefer to control the races from the front. That generally means a Penske car is either in victory lane or on the back of a wrecker by the end of the race. So certainly keep an eye on the Nos. 12 and 22.

Another set of cars to watch is the No. 7 and No. 51. Corey Lajoie and Justin Haley swapped seats ahead of Kansas last week ahead of Haley’s deal with Spire Motorsports for next year and beyond, while Lajoie is still fighting for his seat. But, while Haley finished 33rd at Kansas after spotter miscommunication led to a wreck, Lajoie ended up 15th. The now-Rick Ware Racing driver is hoping to carry that momentum.

“When you can join a team and knock off a finish like that in the first race, it brings with it a big boost of excitement,” Lajoie said. It reinforces the time and energy that everyone puts in to get these cars ready each week.

“It gives the No. 51 team momentum to build on for these final six races. One good finish can lead to another. I’m going to do everything I can on the track to bring home those results and show these guys that I appreciate the work they put in.”

Also of note, NASCAR will be implementing changes at Talladega to increase the liftoff speed of the cars in the hope of stopping flips as happened at Michigan and Daytona. There will be a different rocker skirt and right-side roof flap fabric on the cars, and the right-side roof rails will be extended with polycarbonate to two inches. All changes will be with parts supplied by NASCAR for the teams.

Qualifying will take place at 1:30 p.m. ET on Saturday and will air on USA Network, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. It will stream on the NBC Sports App.

TALLADEGA, ALABAMA – APRIL 20: Austin Hill, driver of the #21 Bennett Transportation Chevrolet, leads the field during the NASCAR Xfinity Series Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 20, 2024 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

The second round of the Xfinity Playoffs is the first chance to lock in a spot

The Xfinity Series is returning to Talladega in the Playoffs for the United Rentals 250 on Saturday at 4 p.m. ET, airing on The CW, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, and every postseason driver has a chance. Since Aric Almirola, a part-time driver, won the Playoffs opener at Kansas, there is no Playoff driver yet locked into the next round.

Certainly, Cole Custer, who enters 41 points above the cutline, is in better position than anyone else, but he knows that Talladega is nothing to bank on.

“Superspeedway racing is a challenge,” Custer acknowledged. “It’s honestly a game of luck for the drivers, and it’s not always a fun game. You aren’t always a winner. There are things that you can control in the race, like having a fast car, being able to make aggressive moves when needed, and how well you can work the draft. Those are all aspects of racing that we can focus on as a team heading into this race. But, there’s also just so much you cannot prepare for at this style of track. There’s so much unpredictability.

“Anything can happen, and an accident can happen at any time, anywhere in the field. I feel like we were solid at Daytona and at Talladega last season, but it’s just a matter of controlling your destiny in these races and staying out of trouble. We had a strong 10th-place showing in the spring, too. You always have that luck factor at superspeedways, and, in the end, you just hope you hit the jackpot.”

Behind Custer, Chandler Smith (+36) and Austin Hill (+26) enter with healthy margins to the cutline as well. Closer are Sam Mayer (+13), Sheldon Creed (+10), and rookie Shane van Gisbergen (+8).

The battle for the cutline entering Talladega, though, is between rookie Jesse Love, who enters three points to the good, Riley Herbst who comes in with just a single point advantage, and Justin Allgaier who enters only one point below.

While Riley Herbst has been good at the superspeedways – in both the Cup and Xfinity Series – including a runner-up finish at Talladega in the spring race this year, he echoed his teammate Cole Custer that such races are down to chance.

“You can’t really prepare as much for any superspeedway-style race – so Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta are all big unknowns in our schedule. While you can try to figure out the handling and make sure you have speed, a lot of these races are up to luck. It’s like gambling in Vegas, sometimes you’re a big winner and sometimes you’re just not. These are wild cards on our schedule. You could be having the best day of your racing career and be taken out by a wreck not of your own doing due to the pack-style racing.

“We come up with plans for how we hope the race weekend will run, but you also have to be ready to change plans at a moment’s notice. The No. 98 Monster Energy team has brought fast cars not only to superspeedways, but almost every race this season, so I know we can be fast. We just have to be smart and stay out of trouble if we want to be there at the end. Hopefully, we can do just that.”

Further below the cutline are AJ Allmendinger (-13), Parker Kligerman in his final year in the Xfinity Series (-15), and Sammy Smith (-23).

Qualifying will take place at 11:30 p.m. ET on Saturday and will air on USA Network, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. It will stream on the NBC Sports App.

TALLADEGA, ALABAMA – SEPTEMBER 30: Nick Sanchez, driver of the #2 Gainbridge Chevrolet, leads the field during the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Love’s RV Stop 250 at Talladega Superspeedway on September 30, 2023 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Talladega is a tough start to the Truck Series Round of Eight

The chance to secure a spot in the Craftsman Truck Series finale, and to race for the championship, starts now in the first race of the Round of 8 of the series’ Playoffs, Friday’s Love’s RV Stop 225 at Talladega Superspeedway, airing at 4:30 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

Corey Heim, who won at Kansas to pick up his sixth win of the season, enters Talladega with more wins than any other driver and probably more confidence as well. The next-highest win total in the series belongs to Christian Eckes, and Eckes has just three wins, half that of Heim’s.

That means that, though Eckes may have won the regular season championship on the back of some impressive consistency throughout the year, Heim has the edge entering the round thanks to the huge Playoff point bonus from wins and stage wins.

Heim comes into Talladega 38 points above the cutline ahead of Eckes, 29 above. Ty Majeski (+14) and Nick Sanchez (+8) both also enter above the cutline. Rajah Caruth (-8), Tyler Ankrum (-11), Grant Enfinger (-11), and Tayler Gray (-15) all have some ground to make up.

And points matter because, even if three different Playoff drivers win the next three races – and a predictable winner is never a guarantee at Talladega especially – there will still be one spot available for a driver on points. So not only do the Round of 8 drivers need to go for the win, they need to maximize every stage point throughout the race and position on the track at the end to top up that point total. So expect hard racing all afternoon.

Outside the Playoff battle, two drivers in the field will make their first-ever superspeedway start. It could be a battle as William Sawalich races in the No. 1 and Connor Zilisch climbs into the No. 7, since those two drivers have already competed extensively between themselves in ARCA so far this year.

Qualifying will take place at 1 p.m. ET on Friday.

Owen Johnson