Shane van Gisbergen looks unbeatable on the road courses right now. He may have missed out at COTA, but the New Zealander has won the last three on the road.
Watkins Glen is a chance to make it four on the season – if he could do it, van Gisbergen would have joint-most wins of any driver on the season, tied with Denny Hamlin at four.
But Watkins Glen also proved that SVG can be beaten purely on pace. Last year, it was Chris Buescher who did just that, triumphing in a thrilling final lap battle that had shades of some of NASCAR’s historic road course highlights.
Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen (airing at 2 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) is a chance for a rematch. However, Buescher is quick to acknowledge that it took a lot of things coming together.
“We had a really good car at Watkins Glen that took a while to get going. Our long run speed was really the perk there, and the way the race played out, our long run speed was very strong,” he explained. “We had some good strategies as well and with the handful of restarts we were still able to go toe for toe there.”
The way last year’s race played out led to several long runs, where Buescher’s car was strongest. This year, the team is hoping for a little more short run speed to take advantage of any more cautions.
“We’ve seen some separation between short and long run speed at some tracks, and The Glen was probably the largest offset last year. I don’t know if that’ll be the case this year, and also, we don’t really want it to be that large. We need to figure out how to fire off a little bit better, and that’s probably our bigger focus right now,” Buescher said.
Odds via BetMGM
+125 – Shane van Gisbergen
+550 – Connor Zilisch
+1000 – Kyle Larson
+1000 – Christopher Bell
+1600 – William Byron
+1600 – Chase Elliott
+1800 – Michael McDowell
+1800 – Tyler Reddick
+2000 – Chris Buescher
Buescher might not have the best odds coming into the race, but don’t count him out either way. Since the Next Gen car was introduced, Buescher has had the second-best average finish of any driver on the road courses (9.6), only slightly beaten by van Gisbergen himself (8.9).
Watkins Glen was his first and only win on the track type, compared to van Gisbergen’s four in his short Cup Series career, but that just points to Buescher’s consistency, with 15 top-ten finishes in 21 road course races, tied for the most of any driver.
And there’s another factor to motivate Buescher: there are just three races to go before the Playoff field is set. Buescher would be above the cutline if the Playoffs started today, but he has just a 23-point buffer, uncomfortably small with three races to go – especially since any new winner would get an automatic berth and thereby displace one of the drivers provisionally in on points.
In fact, theoretically, no driver is safe is points. Three are in at the moment: Tyler Reddick is safest if any points spots are available, followed by Alex Bowman and Buescher. But with a new winner in each of the final three races, all of the 16 Playoff berths might be reserved for winners.
Playoff Bubble at Watkins Glen
14. Tyler Reddick (+122)
15. Alex Bowman (+63)
16. Chris Buescher (+23)
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17. Ryan Preece (-23)
18. Kyle Busch (-73)
19. Ty Gibbs (-87)
Just on the other side of the cutline is Ryan Preece, Buescher’s RFK Racing teammate. He’ll have to balance racing for his own season against the interests of his new team.
“To be honest with you, Chris and I race really well together, so I think we have enough respect for each other on the racetrack to do it the right way, and we’re going to race hard,” Preece said. “I’m not really entirely sure of how to approach it, other than the way we’ve been doing it all year, which is take care of each other and race each other with a lot of respect and don’t wreck each other.”
Two drivers below the cutline to watch as they hunt for that season-defining win and Playoff berth are Ty Gibbs and AJ Allmendinger. Both are multiple-time road course winners – Gibbs in the Xfinity Series and Allmendinger even in the Cup Series – and both need a win this year.
It will be the now-familiar opponent trying to hold all of them off and ensure there is no other road course winner but himself, though.
“I still get frustrated thinking about that race,” van Gisbergen described of losing last year’s event at Watkins Glen when he allowed Buescher to get to his bumper. “When I make a personal mistake like that, it makes me angry to think that I threw that one away myself, especially after how good of a day it was, and we had the fastest car all day, then to do that.
“I really want to get there this weekend, make no mistakes, have a fast car and try to execute all day. Which we have been doing on the road courses, and it will be good to continue doing that,” he said.
SVG will be joined by his now familiar opponent and teammate in the Xfinity Series, Connor Zilisch. The two have traded wins in NASCAR’s second-tier series, and the 19-year-old Zilisch will get another chance to take on the 36-year-old veteran at Watkins Glen. Zilisch will be driving the No. 87 to van Gisbergen’s No. 88.
Practice and qualifying will start at 12:05 p.m. ET on Saturday. Both sessions will air on truTV, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Connor Zilisch Looks for the Win and the Points Lead
There’s no clearer evidence of Connor Zilisch’s rookie year domination in the Xfinity Series than a close examination of the points picture.
Sure, he’s tied with series veteran Justin Allgaier for the points lead coming into Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series Mission 200 at The Glen (airing at 3 p.m. ET on The CW, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
But Zilisch has competed in one entire fewer race that Allgaier (a back injury at Talladega took him out for Texas) and is still tied for the points lead. Zilisch has five wins this season on both road courses and ovals compared to Allgaier’s three.
Now, he returns to the racetrack where his Xfinity Series domination began. Last year, coming off class wins at the 24 Hours of Daytona and the 12 Hours of Sebring, Zilisch scored his first Xfinity Series win in his first series start.
Sam Mayer, sitting third in the points, trails the pair by 16 points. However, the Haas Factory Team driver won at Watkins Glen in 2023, then driving for JR Motorsports, and already has a win this season.
Mayer can easily make it a three-way fight for the regular season championship, which confers both a title and trophy but also some coveted Playoff points that can help in a run for the overall championship,
The other side of the points picture is also interesting, though, as drivers fight just to be in the Playoffs for a chance at the championship in the first place. With four races remaining in the season, there are just four spots remaining on points – meaning that points are no guarantee of a space since any new winner gets a guaranteed Playoff berth and four new winners would take all the places for points away.
At the moment, Zilisch and Allgaier’s JR Motorsports teammate Carson Kvapil occupies the best position, +93 to the cutline. He’s followed by Sheldon Creed (+82), Taylor Gray (+67), and Harrison Burton (+17). On the other side, Ryan Sieg (-17) and Jeb Burton (-19) are very much within range.
Any other driver below the cutline can immediately turn around their fortunes with a win that gets them in the Playoffs, however, so no driver is truly out.
There will be another (familiar) face to add to the battle at the front of the field too, as Shane van Gisbergen returns to the No. 9 JR Motorsports car for the third time this season, hoping to score his fifth career Xfinity Series win. He’s finished first and second respectively, with Zilisch in the inverse position, the last two attempts this season.
Practice and qualifying will start at 9:30 a.m. ET on Saturday. Both sessions will air on the CW App.
Truck Series Makes a Rare Appearance at The Glen
The Craftsman Truck Series is a rare sight in upstate New York. The series last visited Watkins Glen in 2021, and this year’s race will be just the third time the series will compete at the track since 2000.
Friday’s Mission 176 at The Glen (airing at 5 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) will be a fresh challenge for the drivers.
It’s not one without precedent, though, as the series headed to another northeast road course, Lime Rock Park, earlier this season; and that was for the first time ever. So Truck Series drivers have some practice getting to grips with new, or at least unfamiliar, road courses.
The winner of the Truck Series race back in 2021 was Austin Hill, who’s no longer racing in the series. However, it was Corey Heim who won at Lime Rock Park, also the only other road course race so far this year, contributing to his huge 143-point lead in the standings, and Heim has to be the favorite.
However, the field will also have to face down some additional competitors. First, four Cup Series drivers: Kyle Busch in the No. 07, Ross Chastain in the No. 44, Christopher Bell in the No. 52, and Chris Buescher in the No. 66. Second, two Xfinity Series drivers: Sammy Smith in the No. 7 and Connor Zilisch in the No. 45.
Practice and qualifying will start at 11:35 a.m. ET on Friday. Both sessions will air on the FS2.
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