Who is in the Chase and what are the Clinch Scenarios for Richmond?

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With no new winner after Darlington Sunday, there were no changes to the current NASCAR sprint Cup Series Chase Grid. But now there is only one more race for a driver to get locked into the Chase. When the checkered flag falls Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway, the 2016 16-driver Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Grid will be set and the bubble will burst for a few drivers.  Here is who’s already in and the clinch scenarios for the final regular season race at Richmond Saturday night.

Drivers who have clinched a spot in the Chase with multiple wins: Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr.

With his win at Pocono, Chris Buescher has a spot on the Grid, but isn’t locked in.  Buescher is 30th in points but only 11 markers ahead of David Ragan.  Jamie McMurray has a tenuous hold on the final spot, with Ryan Newman is the first driver outside the bubble but after his car failed post race tech Sunday, a penalty of 15 points Wednesday will make it even harder to clinch.

Here are the clinch scenarios from NASCAR for Saturday night’s race at Richmond:

Chris Buescher (1 Win, 358 Points, +11 Points Ahead of 31st) – Would Clinch a Top 30 spot on his own with 34 Points (7th and no laps led, 8th and led at least one lap, 9th and led most laps), which would clinch him a spot in the Chase.

Chase Elliott (0 Wins, 659 Points, +312 Points Ahead of 31st) – Would clinch on points with 24 Points (17th and no laps led, 18th and led at least one lap, 19th and led most laps), if there is a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner (or a new winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30) and 17 Points (24th and no laps led, 25th and led at least one lap, 26th and led most laps).  If there is a repeat winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30, he clinches on points, regardless of finish.  With a win, he would clinch a Chase spot on wins.

Austin Dillon (0 Wins, 651 Points, +304 Points Ahead of 31st) – Would clinch on Points with 33 Points (8th and no laps led, 9th and led at least one lap, 10th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner (or win by Chase Elliott or a new winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30) and Dillon would clinch with 26 Points (15th and no laps led, 16th and led at least one lap, 17th and led most laps).  If there is a repeat winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30, he would clinch on points regardless of finish.  With a win, they would clinch a Chase spot on wins.

Jamie McMurray (0 Wins, 642 Points, +295 Points Ahead of 31st) – Would clinch on points with a repeat winner (or win by Chase Elliott or Austin Dillon or a new winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30) and 35 points (6th and no laps led, 7th and led at least one lap, 8th and led most laps).  If there is a repeat winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30, McMurray would clinch on points, regardless of finish.  With a win, he would clinch a Chase spot on wins.  Could clinch on points with a new winner and help (cannot lose more than six points to Newman as Newman would hold the tie-breaker).

Ryan Newman (0 Wins, 620 Points, +273 Points Ahead of 31st) – With a win, he would clinch a Chase spot on wins.  Could clinch on Points with help (would need to outpoint two of the following if there is a new winner, or one of the following if there is a repeat winner (or win by one of these drivers), McMurray by 7 or more points, Dillon by 17 or more points, Elliott by 25 or more points).  If there is a repeat winner (or win by Elliott, Dillon, McMurray) and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30, he will now need to gain 22-points to clinch on points.

Kasey Kahne (0 Wins, 598 Points, +251 Points Ahead of 31st) – With a win, Kahne would clinch a Chase spot on wins.  Could clinch on points with a repeat winner (or win by Elliott, Dillon or McMurray) and Chris Buescher falling outside of the Top 30 and help (would need to outpoint Newman by 37 (if he finishes in 3rd or higher) or by 38 points).

NSCS_LastChanceForChase_DR

(NASCAR)

The following need a win to clinch a Chase spot on wins:

Ryan Blaney (0 Wins, 573 Points, +226 Points Ahead of 31st)
AJ Allmendinger (0 Wins, 562 Points, +215 Points Ahead of 31st)
Trevor Bayne (0 Wins, 559 Points, +212 Points Ahead of 31st)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr (0 Wins, 551 Points, +204 Points Ahead of 31st)
Paul Menard (0 Wins, 479 Points, +132 Points Ahead of 31st)
Greg Biffle (0 Wins, 477 Points, +130 Points Ahead of 31st)
Danica Patrick (0 Wins, 467 Points, +120 Points Ahead of 31st)
Aric Almirola (0 Wins, 431 Points, +84 Points Ahead of 31st)
Clint Bowyer (0 Wins, 427 Points, +80 Points Ahead of 31st)
Casey Mears (0 Wins, 410 Points, +63 Points Ahead of 31st)
Landon Cassill (0 Wins, 368 Points, +21 Points Ahead of 31st)

The following need a win and help (to get inside the Top 30) in order to make the Chase:

David Ragan (0 Wins, 347 Points, 11 Points Behind of 30th)
Regan Smith (0 Wins, 330 Points, 28 Points Behind of 30th)

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