Hope Is Not a Strategy but Don’t Tell Ryan Preece That

After Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol, Ryan Preece made a bold assertion.

First, the context. Preece had just finished fifth in the 23rd NASCAR Cup Series race of the season, parlaying pit strategy and an opportune caution into his top-five run.

Unfortunately, the stellar result wasn’t enough to propel Preece above the elimination line for the Playoffs. He still trails his Roush Fenway Keselowski teammate, Chris Buescher—the last driver above the line—by 23 points.

Sunday’s race at Iowa Speedway also was a breakout moment of sorts for team co-owner Brad Keselowski, who won the first two stages and finished third in the race.

Keselowski’s chances to win disappeared amid a string of cautions that allowed race winner William Byron and runner-up Chase Briscoe to save enough fuel to get to the finish line ahead of him.

That shouldn’t dull the luster, however, of back-to-back top-five finishes for both Preece and Keselowski, who finished fourth and fifth, respectively, at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27.

Before the race at Indy, RFK hadn’t placed two drivers in the top five in the same event since Buescher ran second and Keselowski fourth on March 10, 2024 at Phoenix Raceway.

Preece was enthused enough after the race to offer that all three RFK drivers could qualify for the Playoffs, even though only three spots are still available, and Keselowski can advance to the postseason only by winning one of the three remaining races in the regular season.

“Ultimately, I look forward to Watkins Glen, Richmond and Daytona,” Preece said of the next three Cup venues. “All three of us can still get in (the Playoffs}. It’s going to take a lot of perseverance and a lot of luck, but we have fast race cars, and we can get the job done.”

In reality, there’s only one way for that to happen. Each RFK driver must win one of the next three races to knock out both Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman.

Though he finished 19th on Sunday, Reddick is still 122 points above the elimination line and ostensibly secure for a Playoff spot on points—unless there are three new winners from below the cut line.

Bowman is 63 points ahead of Preece after finishing seventh at Iowa, also hoping to qualify on points if he doesn’t win one of the next three races.

For argument’s sake, however, let’s say that Buescher defends last year’s victory at the Watkins Glen International. He’ll have to beat road course ace Shane van Gisbergen, but he did just that in 2024. One down, two to go.

Buescher is also a candidate to win at Richmond, where he took the checkered flag in the second race of 2023, but Keselowski led 102 laps in that same event and claimed two victories at the 0.75-mile track before the introduction of the Gen 7 race car in 2022.

Let’s concede a Richmond win to Keselowski. Two down, one victory to go.

Preece would then have to have a breakout triumph at Daytona, where he has only one finish better than 31st in the last five races. That’s what it would take to knock Reddick out of the running, but Preece’s luck has to turn at some point. Doesn’t it?

After all, in the crucible that is Daytona, all things are possible.

Three races, three wins and three Playoff berths—before reality sets in.

The far more likely scenario is that one RFK driver will advance to the postseason at the expense of another. Nevertheless, the performances of Keselowski and Preece at Iowa were enough to instill hope in an organization that has been through its share of rough times this season.

“Obviously, we want to win, but we’re in contention, that’s for sure,” Keselowski said after the race. “We will keep putting solid runs on the board, and I think this will come to us. We have some pretty strong Ford Mustangs right now.”

Strong enough for each of the drivers to win one of the next three races? Probably not.

But strong enough to know that long-awaited victories may materialize in the not-too-distant future? Very likely indeed.