Rookies rarely win in their maiden seasons in NASCAR these days. Rookies do not win twice in their first year. The last time that happened was when Denny Hamlin swept Pocono in 2006, almost 20 years ago.
Until now, with Shane van Gisbergen having won at both the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and the Chicago Street Course to claim two wins in his own Cup Series rookie season. And the season is far from over yet.
But SVG is no ordinary rookie. No young driver rising in the motorsport ranks, he comes off a successful career in the Australian Supercars series where he won three championships. There, he honed his skills to perfection in driving touring cars on road and street courses.
He showed his immense skill to the NASCAR world for the first time by winning at the Chicago Street Course in his first ever NASCAR start in 2023, and then went on to win three times last year in his first full-time Xfinity Series season and has now won twice halfway through his official Cup Series rookie season.
So, midway through the season, as the Cup Series goes back-to-back on road courses, the schedule seems to suit SVG more than anybody. The scenic Sonoma Raceway in California offers him a chance for three in his rookie year. A driver hasn’t won three races in their rookie season this century, with the last driver to do so being Tony Stewart in 1999.
But after falling short in Chicago, every other driver will be looking to mount a challenge in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 (airing 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Odds via BetMGM
+125 – Shane van Gisbergen
+600 – Kyle Larson
+1100 – Michael McDowell
+1200 – Tyler Reddick
+1300 – Chase Elliott
+1300 – Ty Gibbs
+1300 – Chris Buescher
+1700 – Christopher Bell
+1800 – William Byron
+2000 – AJ Allmendinger
Naturally, SVG is the odds-on favorite. Sonoma is one of those tracks he won on in his stint in the Xfinity Series last year, so van Gisbergen comes into the track with a perfect record. This year, he’ll also compete in the Xfinity Series on Saturday, so he will have refreshed track knowledge of the 1.99-mile road course.
Worryingly for his competition, SVG seemed chipper and excited about Sunday’s race.
“I’m excited to get there! I’ve never raced that track in a Cup car, so it’s going to be interesting to see how it races and what it’s like,” van Gisbergen said of Sonoma.
“I did the Xfinity race there last year and had a great time. It will be interesting with it being my second time in the Xfinity car and trying to understand how to make that car better. Then in the Cup car, it’s obviously a track everyone is going to be strong at because they’ve had so many reps there it’s going to be interesting to see if we still have a speed advantage. But looking forward to running double duty again.”
While he has been focusing on learning ovals against Cup Series competition this season, van Gisbergen confirmed that this stretch of races has been the team’s focus as a chance to get wins to lock into the Playoffs and earn more Playoff points. That has paid off so far.
“We have been getting a lot better on the road courses as a team. Just doing really good work with the car setup and development on it, and the preparation has just been so intense heading into Mexico City and Chicago, but good at the same time,” he explained. “In Chicago, once we got on track, the car felt great. It was incredible to have two flawless days there. Really looking forward to seeing what we can accomplish together this weekend in Sonoma.”
But don’t count out the rest of the field. Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have both won at Sonoma twice and Daniel Suarez (SVG’s Trackhouse teammate) has won at the track once, so other drivers know the facility.
Kyle Busch especially would love another win at Sonoma. He picked up three wins in his first season after moving to Richard Childress Racing from Joe Gibbs but went winless last season and has not managed to return to victory lane so far this year. However, Busch has shown speed at the road courses this season, with fifth-place finishes at both Circuit of The Americas and the streets of Chicago (although his Mexico race ended with a spin under braking in the wet that took out a few other drivers).
“I’m looking forward to Sonoma this weekend,” Busch said. “We’ve had some good runs on road courses as of late. We had a fast car in Mexico and another last weekend at Chicago. We need to keep our good runs at road courses coming together.
“I always enjoy going to wine country, it’s a great place to go for a race and all the other cool reasons that everyone looks forward to getting out to Sonoma. I’m looking forward to getting back on the twisty roads of wine country and having a good race. We’ve been fast there in the past, I’ve won there a couple of times, so I hope we’ll be able to capitalize on a fast car and put ourselves in a position to win.”
Also watch Michael McDowell. He exited Chicago early with mechanical issues, but he was able to pass SVG on pace at Chicago and drive away throughout the entire first stage, proving his speed at van Gisbergen’s bread-and-butter track type. McDowell scored an emotional win on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in 2023 and will be looking for a third Cup Series victory of his career, not just season.
Another thing to watch is the continuing in-season bracket challenge. It might get less attention than other storylines since no fans at home have a perfect bracket remaining (and none have since the first race of the challenge at Atlanta) but eight drivers are still in the hunt for $1 million.
The matchups at Sonoma are: Ty Gibbs v Zane Smith; Ty Dillon v Alex Bowman; John Hunter Nemechek v Erik Jones; and Ryan Preece v Noah Gragson.
Cup Series practice will be at 1:30 p.m. ET on Saturday followed by qualifying at 2:40 p.m. ET. Both sessions will air on TruTV and PRN.
Zilisch Gets a Chance to Get His Own Back at Sonoma
Last week, the Xfinity Series race at Chicago came down to a shootout between experienced veteran Shane van Gisbergen and his young teammate Connor Zilisch. At least, it seemed like it would. On a restart with two laps to go in the race, van Gisbergen ran wide into the first corner, putting Zilisch in the wall and leaving the door wide open to run away to his own win.
In Saturday’s Pit Boss/FoodMaxx 250 at Sonoma Raceway (airing at 4:30 p.m. ET on CW, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), he might have a chance to test his memory.
Zilisch is a full-time Xfinity Series driver in his rookie season and Shane van Gisbergen is making another part-time start at Sonoma (in fact, for Zilisch’s own JR Motorsports team).
SVG’s road course prowess is well-known, but Zilisch has the resume himself: the 18-year-old driver has scored two road course wins in the Xfinity Series already in his young career and is a class winner in the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona in his first attempt.
While van Gisbergen is the defending winner at Sonoma, Zilisch is hoping to upset his chance at a repeat in the Xfinity Series at a track he enjoys.
“Sonoma is one of the most beautiful tracks that we go to. I circle all the road courses on the calendar, but this one is going to be a lot of fun,” Zilisch described. “There’s a lot of elevation at Sonoma and a lot of opportunity to make up time. Sonoma is a track where the driver can make a difference and that’s something I really enjoy.
“It’s another road course for me and that means another opportunity to win. I have a lot of confidence every time we go to a road course and Sonoma is a track that I’ve really enjoyed going to in the past. We have six top-fives in a row entering this weekend and I’m looking forward to back up that momentum.”
Zilisch and SVG are certainly the favorites for the race, and if that means they’re racing together at the end then expect no holds barred. SVG has already proven he’s willing to do that and Zilisch has said he’s now prepared to respond.
Xfinity Series practice will be at 4:00 p.m. ET on Friday followed by qualifying at 5:05 p.m. ET. Both sessions will air on the CW App.
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